| 基于GM(1,1)模型群的深圳市大气污染物灰色预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 戴华炜,陈小旋,孙晓通.基于GM(1,1)模型群的深圳市大气污染物灰色预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2014(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 戴华炜 陈小旋 孙晓通 |
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| 作者单位： | 惠州学院数学系; |
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| 基金项目： | 惠州学院博士启动项目资助(C511.0212) |
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| 摘 要： | 通过灰色系统GM(1,1)模型群,对深圳市未来两年的主要大气污染物浓度进行了预测分析.通过预测得到,在未来两年内,深圳市的SO2浓度基本已经达到国家环境空气质量一级标准,NO_2、PM_(10)浓度已达到国家二级标准,深圳市空气质量将持续好转.结果表明,GM(1,1)模型群具有一定的实用价值.
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| 关 键 词： | 污染物预测 后验差检验 三点平滑 |
The Gray Prediction Model of the Atmospheric Pollutants in Shenzhen Based on GM(1,1) |
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| Abstract: | The method of gray system GM(1,1) is established for prediction and analysis of the main atmospheric pollutants in future two years in Shenzhen.The forecasting result is that the concentration of SO_2 will come to the national primary standard and the concentration of NO_2 and PM_(10) will reach the national secondary standard.The quality of the atmospheric in urban area of Shenzhen city will be improved in next years.The result shows that GM(1,1) model has practical value. |
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| Keywords: | forecast of pollutants after-test residue checking cubic exponential smoothing |
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