A Bayesian analysis for the seismic data on Taiwan |
| |
Authors: | Tsai-Hung Fan Eng-Nan Kuo |
| |
Institution: | (1) Graduate Institute of Statistics, National Central University, 32054 Chungli, Taiwan R.O.C. |
| |
Abstract: | A Bayesian approach is used to analyze the seismic events with magnitudes at least 4.7 on Taiwan. Following the idea proposed
by Ogata (1988,Journal of the American Statistical Association,83, 9–27), an epidemic model for the process of occurrence times given the observed magnitude values is considered, incorporated
with gamma prior distributions for the parameters in the model, while the hyper-parameters of the prior are essentially determined
by the seismic data in an earlier period. Bayesian inference is made on the conditional intensity function via Markov chain
Monte Carlo method. The results yield acceptable accuracies in predicting large earthquake events within short time periods. |
| |
Keywords: | Epidemic model prior distribution hyperparameter conditional intensity function MCMC method |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|