洪灾综合风险分析方法讨论(Ⅰ)——基于集对分析理论

随着社会经济的发展及人们对洪水灾害认识的深入,洪灾风险的研究从单一风险转向综合风险,将是防洪减灾理论发展的必然趋势.根据洪灾风险的特性,引入信息的整体性原理,并应用集对分析理论对洪灾风险系统进行确定不确定分析,首次提出了洪灾系统风险的同异反分析方法.该方法将干旱、洪涝及其风险信息综合体现在洪水灾害系统的联系度中,从而为进一步开展详尽的综合风险分析奠定了理论基础.

Method Discussion on Integrated Risk Analysis of Flood Disaster——Based on Set Pair

With the development of the society and the growth of people′s knowledge about flood disaster,it is bound to be a trend in flood control and hazard mitigation that the study object of flood disaster risk converts from single risk to integrated risk.This paper introduces the principle of the whole information on the grounds of the characteristic of flood disaster risk,analyses the certainty and the uncertainty of flood disaster system by means of Set Pair Analysis theory and proposes for the first time the identical-different-opposite analysis method for integrated risk of flood disaster system.Drought,flood and risk information are embodied in the Connection-factor of the flood disaster system by this method,which makes up a theoretical basis for further studies in synthetic risk analysis.