中美双边航空运输市场组合预测研究

预测应用研究表明,组合预测可以综合利用各单项预测方法所提供的信息,是提高预测精度的有效途径.本文在平均发展速度预测法、指数趋势预测以及灰色预测方法的基础上建立组合预测模型,采用熵值法确定组合权系数,预测了2006年至2010年中美间航空运输周转量、中美间航空客运量及货运量.

On the Combination Forecasting of Sino-US Air Transport Market

Combination forecasting is an effective way to improve the accuracy of forecasting as it can utilize the information from every single forecasting method comprehensively.Based on average rate of growth forecasting method,exponential tendency forecasting method and grey forecasting method, this paper sets up a combination forecasting model,in which the coefficients of combination weights are determined by the entropy approach.The combination model is used to forecast the Sino-US air transport traffic(TKMs),passenger numbers and cargo volume from the year of 2006 to the year of 2010.