基于VEC模型的江苏省对外贸易与经济增长的实证分析

利用江苏省1985年到2012年的经济数据,通过对江苏省的进出口贸易与经济增长之间的关系进行协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验.发现进口、出口和经济增长之间具有长期协整关系,进口是GDP的格兰杰原因,而出口不是GDP的格兰杰原因.通过建立VEC模型,得到了较好的拟合结果.最后给出了几个政策建议.

Empirical Research about Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Jiangsu Province Based on VEC model

Based on the annual economic data of Jiangsu GDP and import & export in1985-2012,We applies the method of cointegration test and Granger causality test methods to empirically analyze the relationship between foreign trade and GDP in Jiangsu Province.The results indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relation among Export,Import,Economic Growth in Jiangsu Province.Export is the Granger Causality of GDP in Jiangsu province,but Import is not Causality Causality of GDP in Jiangsu province.And then,through the establishment of vec model,the paper gives a fitting results,at last,we give some policy suggestions.