基于复杂网络的灾害蔓延模型评价及改进

介绍了几种已存在的复杂网络上的灾害蔓延模型，在对模型进行优缺点评价的基础上，给出了一种网络中存在冗余系统的改进模型.对不同的模型，在不同的网络结构下，仿真分析了蔓延过程的差异以及重要参数的作用.结果表明网络中存在冗余系统的灾害蔓延过程变缓，相应有了更多的应急、补救时间，同时也解释了现实生活中大规模灾害事件很少发生的原因.关键词：复杂网络灾害蔓延冗余系统

Estimation and improvement of disaster spreading models based on complex network

Disasters threaten mankind and degrade our survival conditions，and have a serious impact on human society. Several previous disaster spreading models in complex networks are reviewed. Based on the evaluation of their advantages and disadvantages，a more realistic model in the networks with redundant systems is proposed. For different models in different network structures，the differences of spreading processes and the effects of some important parameters are analyzed by means of simulation. The disaster processes in the networks with redundant system become slow，which permits of longer rescue time to repair the system. It can explain the reason why large-scale disaster events rarely happen in real life.