火灾逃生过程的模拟与讨论—–以吉林禽业火灾为例

2013年6月3日,吉林禽业公司发生大火,300多名员工中120人遇难,是我国2000年以来死亡人数最多的一次火灾.此次火灾造成巨大伤亡的一个重要原因是厂房的6个出口只有3个可用,并且员工不知道每个出口的可用性信息.本文运用经典的地面场模型对吉林禽业火灾逃生过程进行模拟,研究了厂房各出口的重要性差异以及出口的可用性对逃生效果的影响.结果表明,如果多开一个出口,最多可挽救54.3%的遇难者,如果6个出口全部可用,76.6%的遇难者能够逃离.另外,在出口可用性信息完全掌握的情况下,遇难人数也会减少21.6%.由此可见,保证人群集聚现场出口的可用性以及信息的及时流通对于保护人民的生命财产安全至关重要.

Simulation of p edestrian evacuation based on Jilin fire

In the fire of the factory of Jilin poultry company occurred on 3 June, 2013, which was the biggest fire disaster in the recent 13 years, 120 people were burned. One of the most important reasons lies in the shut off of 3 out of 6 exits, and further, the staff did not know which exit can be used to evacuate. In this paper, we simulate the evacuation process of the fire of Jilin using the foor field model, and show the importance of each exit and the influence of the shut off of exits. Results show that, if only there had been one more exit opened when the fire occurred, about 54.3% of the burned pedestrians could survive, and if all the exits ware opened, 76.6% of the burned pedestrians would survive. In addition, if the pedestrians had got the information of the availability of each exit, the number of burned pedestrians would reduce 21.6%. Hence, it is crucial to maintain the availability of the exits and spread the availability information for preventing loss of life and property.
Keywords： cellular automaton Jilin fire pedestrian evacuation incomplete information