基于三阶段DEA模型的我国碳排放效率分析

对我国区域碳排放效率的准确测评是各省区针对性制定减排战略的基础,经典DEA模型未能排除外部环境因素和随机因素的影响,本文利用三阶段DEA模型构建消除外部环境因素和随机因素的区域碳排放效率测算模型。研究表明我国碳排放高效率地区共有广东等9省,中效率地区共有湖南等16省,低效率地区共有甘肃等4省。用三阶段DEA模型测算出的各省1997~2010年平均碳排放效率结果与经典DEA模型测算结果有显著性差异,与我国经济发展实际和预期结果更加吻合,各省可以根据自身测评结果有针对性地提高综合碳排放效率。

Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency in China Based on Three-Stage DEA Model

Accurate evaluation of regional carbon emission efficiency is the basis for each province to develop targeted mitigation strategy. Classic DEA model can not exclude the influence of external environmental factors and random factors. In this paper, the authors use three-stage DEA model to estimate regional carbon emission efficiency to eliminate external environmental factors and random factors. The research result shows that high efficiency regions have 9 provinces including Guangdong, middle efficiency regions have 16 provinces including Hunan, and low efficiency regions have 4 provinces including Gansu. The calculation results of the average carbon emission efficiency from 1997 to 2010 in each province are estimated respectively by classic DEA model, which by three-stage DEA Model have significant difference, but are more consistent with China's actual situation and expected results of economic development. Based on their own evaluation results, the provinces should target the provincial carbon emission efficiency on them.