西湖风景区游客逗留时间决定因素研究

随着近年来城际交通条件的改善,游客在旅游目的地的逗留时间普遍缩短,极大地影响了一个旅游城市旅游产业的赢利能力;但另一方面,热点景区的游客众多,又需要对游客的逗留时间进行控制,以利于景区环境和文物保护.本研究以杭州西湖风景区为例,运用生存分析中的Cox及Weibull模型,分析游客逗留时间的决定因素.调研数据来源于2009年夏天在西湖风景区调查的243份问卷,对象是完成西湖游览行程的来杭游客.研究发现:①家庭收入的增长、个体出行、亲友结伴、住宿开支减少等因素均能够显著增加在西湖景区的逗留时间,而随团出行、多次来杭旅行、住宿星级酒店等因素则会促使逗留时间减少.②景区的游览设施及服务质量、住宿接待的服务质量、西湖景区的整体改造、自然及文化吸引力、夜间景观及活动项目吸引力、景区门票制度的改变这几项对于增加游客逗留时间具有重要作用.③杭州整体旅游形象塑造、景区主管部门的宣传推广、亲友及网络口碑等几项对于增加游客逗留时间的效果并不明显.全文最后对西湖风景区的相关管理部门和旅游企业提出建议,以寻求景区发展面临不同影响因素时可采取的相应对策.

Study on determinants of length of stay:a case study of West Lake

With the improvement of traffic conditions,visitors’ length of stay has been shortened,which greatly affected the profitability of a tourism city;on the other hand,many popular scenic spots need to control the length of tourist stay in order to facilitate ecological and heritage conservation.The main purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of tourists’ length of stay using Cox and Weibull model of survival analysis.An empirical study was conducted by investigating 243 tourists who have completed the trip to West Lake.Based on the results of survival analysis,some recommendations to the management department and tourism enterprises are put forward.