On the efficiency of selection criteria in spline regression

This paper concerns the cubic smoothing spline approach to nonparametric regression. After first deriving sharp asymptotic formulas for the eigenvalues of the smoothing matrix, the paper uses these formulas to investigate the efficiency of different selection criteria for choosing the smoothing parameter. Special attention is paid to the generalized maximum likelihood (GML), C _p and extended exponential (EE) criteria and their marginal Bayesian interpretation. It is shown that (a) when the Bayesian model that motivates GML is true, using C _p to estimate the smoothing parameter would result in a loss of efficiency with a factor of 10/3, proving and strengthening a conjecture proposed in Stein (1990); (b) when the data indeed come from the C _p density, using GML would result in a loss of efficiency of ; (c) the loss of efficiency of the EE criterion is at most 1.543 when the data are sampled from its consistent density family. The paper not only studies equally spaced observations (the setting of Stein, 1990), but also investigates general sampling scheme of the design points, and shows that the efficiency results remain the same in both cases.This work is supported in part by NSF grant DMS-0204674 and Harvard University Clark-Cooke Fund. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000):Primary: 62G08; Secondary: 62G20