基于实物期权定价方法的林业碳汇项目投资决策仿真研究

文章针对林业碳汇项目投资决策的复杂性、动态性和不确定性过程,利用林业—碳汇共同经营决策模型计算林业碳汇项目在投资期内的期望价值,采用实物期权定价方法对不同阶段不同策略下的林业碳汇项目价值进行评估,同时提出了多主体仿真建模方法,利用NetLogo仿真软件对林业碳汇项目投资决策过程进行动态模拟。仿真系统中涉及到的主体有林地、CO₂和投资者,投资者主要是作为观察者的身份,在不同阶段会做出不同的投资策略。模拟仿真三种不同状态下投资者的决策变化:一是传统林业投资动态模拟,不包含碳汇和期权因素动态模拟;二是引入碳汇市场后的林业投资动态模拟;三是引入碳汇市场和期权后林业投资动态模拟。NetLogo仿真分析结果表明引入碳汇市场可以提高投资者的收益并改变投资者的经营策略,同时引入期权,不仅增加了投资者的积极性而进行扩张投资,还可以更好地发挥林木碳汇功能,体现林业的生态价值及经济价值。

Research on Investment Decision-making Design and Simulation of Forestry Carbon Sequestration Project Based on Real Option Pricing Theory

Aiming at the complexity, dynamic and uncertainty process of the forestry carbon sequestration project, the paper applies the real option pricing model to assess the value of the forestry carbon sequestration project under the different stages based on the Factory-Carbon Sequestration Model which is used to calculate the forestry initial value. The paper puts forward the Multi-Agent Modeling and Simulation method and uses the complexity system simulation software NetLogo. The agents involved in the simulation project are Forest land, CO₂ and investor. The investor makes different investment strategies during the different periods and conditions as an observer. There are three conditions in the simulation which show the changes of the investment strategies under the different simulation processes: the first is the traditional forestry investment simulation without the carbon sequestration trading market and options factors, the second simulation introduces the carbon sequestration market to the forestry investment project and the third simulation introduces the carbon sequestration market and options to the forestry investment project. The experiment results show that the investor would change management strategies and make more benefit if the carbon sequestration trading can be introduced to the market, and at the same time the introduction of options can not only increase the investor's enthusiasm that encourage investor expand investment, but also make forestry carbon sequestration play a better role in the forestry project and the ecologic value project.