基于双层博弈模型的民用航空产业链研究

本文针对民用航空市场中的大飞机制造商及航空发动机制造商建立双层博弈模型。在上层模型中,大飞机制造商以市场利润为目标决定其产量及对各发动机供应商的采购量;在下层模型中,航空发动机供应商通过求解一个优化问题决定其自身产量。在求解过程中,将下层优化问题转化为KKT条件,并作为上层优化问题的约束条件,使用分布式迭代算法(Distributed iterative algorithm),进行编程求解。本文通过求解波音-空客双寡头格局下的市场均衡对模型的有效性进行验证,并进一步分析国产大飞机C919量产后市场均衡的变化。

Study of Civil Aviation Industry Chain Based on Two-level Game Model

With the occurrence of oligopoly among manufacturers and suppliers in the civil aviation market, we establish a two-level game theory model to study the problem of competition and decision making between manufacturers and suppliers. In the higher game, the aeroplane manufacturers aim to determine their output and purchase quantity for each engine supplier based on market profit. While in the lower game, engine suppliers determine production by solving an optimization problem. We use the conditions of the lower game to obtain the constraints for the higher game. Then we establish the algorithm for the problem. By simulation using the actual conditions of the market, we can justify the rationality of the model. Therefore, we discuss what impact the production of COMAC C919 will bring to the market as well as the decision making behavior of its pricing.