The system dynamics of future warfare

The dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the unification of Germany have led to a new world order in which political structures have undergone substantial realingnent. NATO has been at the centre of this process of change which has led to the collapse of Soviet communism and the liberation of eastern Europe. Defence Operational Analysis (or Operational Research) played a significant part in this process. However, with the rapid changes of the last few years, many models and assumptions suddenly became irrelevant. A need arose for a major Land/Air conflicts across a range of future scenarios. This paper describes the structure of a System Dynamics model developed to meet this need. It also indicates the way in which the model has changed to take account of rapidly evolving political perceptions and concepts of operation.