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Votes and a half-binomial
Authors:J.S. Frame  Dennis C. Gilliland
Affiliation:Dept. of Mathematics and Dept. of Statistics and Probability, Michigan State University, Wells Hall, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
Abstract:In two party elections with popular vote ratio pq, 12≤p=1 ?q, a theoretical model suggests replacing the so-called MacMahon cube law approximation (pq)3, for the ratio PQ of candidates elected, by the ratio ?k(p)?k(q) of the two half sums in the binomial expansion of (p+q)2k+1 for some k. This ratio is nearly (pq)3 when k = 6. The success probability gk(p)=(pa(pa+qa) for the power law (pq)a?PQ is shown to so closely approximate ?k(p)=Σ0k(r2k+1)p2k+1?rqr, if we choose a = ak=(2k+1)!4kk!k!, that 1≤?k(p)gk(p)≤1.01884086 for k≥1 if12≤p≤1. Computationally, we avoid large binomial coefficients in computing ?k(p) for k>22 by expressing 2?k(p)?1 as the sum (p?q) Σ0k(4pq)sas(2s+1), whose terms decrease by the factors (4pq)(1?12s). Setting K = 4k+3, we compute ak for the large k using a continued fraction πak2=K+12(2K+32(2K+52(2K+…))) derived from the ratio of π to the finite Wallis product approximation.
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