Noise-induced generation of saw-tooth type transitions between climate attractors and stochastic excitability of paleoclimate

Motivated by important paleoclimate applications we study a three dimensional model ofthe Quaternary climatic variations in the presence of stochastic forcing. It is shown thatthe deterministic system exhibits a limit cycle and two stable system equilibria. Wedemonstrate that the closer paleoclimate system to its bifurcation points (lying either inits monostable or bistable zone) the smaller noise generates small or large amplitudestochastic oscillations, respectively. In the bistable zone with two stable equilibria,noise induces a complex multimodal stochastic regime with intermittency of small and largeamplitude stochastic fluctuations. In the monostable zone, the small amplitude stochasticoscillations localized in the vicinity of unstable equilibrium appear along with the largeamplitude oscillations near the stable limit cycle. For the analysis of thesenoise-induced effects, we develop the stochastic sensitivity technique and use theMahalanobis metric in the three-dimensional case. To approximate the distribution ofrandom trajectories in Poincare sections, we use a method of confidence ellipses. Aspatial configuration of these ellipses is defined by the stochastic sensitivity and noiseintensity. The glaciation/deglaciation transitions going between two polar Earth’s stateswith the warm and cold climate become easier and quicker with increasing the noiseintensity. Our stochastic analysis demonstrates a near 100 ky saw-tooth type climate selffluctuations known from paleoclimate records. In addition, the enhancement of noiseintensity blurs the sharp climate cycles and reduces the glaciation-deglaciation periodsof the Earth’s paleoclimate.