Continuous-time Markov model for geriatric patients behavior. Optimization of the bed occupancy and computer simulation

Previous research has shown that the flow of patients around departments of geriatric medicine and ex-patients in the community may be modelled by the application of a mixed-exponential distribution. In this paper we considered a five-compartment model using a continuous-time Markov process to describe the flow of patients. Using a M/Ph/c queuing model, we present a way of optimizing the number of beds in order to maintain an acceptable delay probability at a sufficiently low level. Finally, we constructed a Java computer simulation, using data from St George’s Hospital, London.