房地产综合模拟预警法误区的识别及修正

房地产综合模拟预警法的误区,使得当前房地产市场的预警预报出现失真现象.旨在说明和解决误区问题,以武汉市1988年至2001年房地产相关的年度数据为基础,首先对长期趋势建模误区和预警域确定的误区加以识别;然后针对存在的偏差,从系统角度出发建立简单的模型加以修正.实证研究表明,修正模型显著提高了房地产预警的有效度和精度.

Identification and Modification of the Mistake Area in the Comprehensive Imitated Early-warning Model of Real Estate

At present,the mistake area in the comprehensive imitated early-warning model make the real estate market early warning failure or no high accuracy in the use of this model.On the purpose of resolving the mistake area,this paper firstly identify the mistake area of building long-term trend model and the deviation about the early-warning interval on the basic of year data from 1988 to 2001of real estate of Wuhan City,secondly build up the simple model to revise the existed problem from the systemic angle. The empinical research show that the revised model explicitly enhames the validity and accurary of the real estate early warning.