我国服务业结构与经济增长的实证研究

服务业的发展水平是衡量生产社会化程度和市场经济的重要标志,将服务业分为现代服务业和传统服务业,基于1978-2007年的统计数据,采用协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验对服务业结构与经济增长关系进行实证分析.结果表明现代服务业、传统服务业和经济增长之间存在长期稳定的关系,但服务业内部结构发展不平衡,并对服务业结构的调整提出政策建议.

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Service Industry Structure and Economic Growth in China

The level of service industry development has become an important sign of the socialization of production and market economy development in a country.In this article service industry is divided into modern service industry and traditional service.Based on 1978-2007 statistical data,an empirical economic model on the relationship between the service industry structure and economic growth is set up by using Cointegration relationship test and Granger causality test.The results show that the modern services,the traditional services,and economic growth exist the long-term stable relationship,but the internal structure of the service industry is unbalanced.Meanwhile,the paper puts forward the politic suggestions for the structure of the service industry.