A power law distribution in patients’ lengths of stay in hospital

The distribution of patients’ lengths of stay in English hospitals is measured by using routinely collected data from 11 years. It is found to be well approximated by a power law distribution spanning over more than three decades. To explain this observation, a theoretical resource allocation model is presented. It is based on iterative long-term scheduling of hospital beds, and its main assumption is that future beds are allocated preferentially. This represents a situation where different parts of the health care system compete for resources, with bargaining powers proportional to current resource levels.