考虑风险传导情形的供应风险评估方法

针对考虑风险传导情形的供应风险评估问题,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的供应风险评估方法。该方法中,通过识别引起供应链中各节点企业供应风险的关键风险因素,构建一个贝叶斯网络,并依据贝叶斯公式计算考虑风险传导情形下供应风险的发生概率,在此基础上,对考虑风险传导的供应风险进行评估。最后,通过一个算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。

Supply Risk Evaluation Method Considering Risk Propagation

In this paper, a method for supply risk evaluation based on Bayesian network is proposed to solve the supply risk evaluation problem considering the risk propagation. In this method, firstly, a Bayesian network is constructed via identifying key risk factors which may cause the supply risk of each node enterprise. According to Bayes formula, the probability of supply risk considering the risk propagation is calculated. On this basis, supply risk is evaluated considering the risk propagation. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.