双碳目标下县域空间的减碳潜力与策略路径——基于浙江省碳排放权的解析与分配

在双碳目标的驱动下，碳排放权愈发成为重要的地区发展权，在县域层面落实落位碳额分配是我国深入减碳的焦点，浙江省将在“十四五”时期进入局部率先达峰的二级减碳阶段。为分解落实我国自主减碳目标，采用熵权法构建以公平性、效率性、可持续性为原则的碳排放权分配模型，基于碳排放空间与减碳潜力测算方法，得到2017—2030年浙江省89个县（市、区）的碳排放权分配、碳排放空间分类和减碳潜力分级。结果表明，碳排放权分配在县域层级存在空间差异性，在省域层级存在空间平衡性；碳排放空间分类呈“南余北赤”模式；减碳潜力分级表现为“东高西低”的空间格局。鉴于对县（市、区）不同碳排机理的归纳与解析，提出了逐级修正的减碳路径与策略。

Carbon reduction potential and strategic path of county space under dual carbon targets: Based on analysis and allocation of carbon emission rights in Zhejiang province

Driven by the goal of carbon neutrality, carbon emission rights have become increasingly important regional development rights. How to implement carbon allocation at the county level will become the focus of China's in-depth carbon reduction. In the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Zhejiang province will enter the second stage of carbon reduction. In order to decompose and implement China's independent carbon reduction targets, the entropy weight method is adopted to build a carbon emission rights allocation model based on the principle of "equity-efficiency-sustainability". Based on the calculation method of carbon reduction space and potential, we attain the allocation of carbon emission rights, spatial classification of carbon emissions and carbon reduction potential classification for Zhejiang counties from 2017 to 2030. The results show that there exhibits a spatial difference in individual carbon emission right allocation at the county level and spatial balance at the province level. The spatial classification of carbon emissions shows a pattern of "surplus in the south and deficit in the north". The classification of carbon reduction potential shows a spatial pattern of "high in the east and low in the west". Based on the summary and analysis of different carbon emission mechanisms of districts and counties, the carbon reduction paths and strategies are put forward.