城市创新能力评价及时空格局演化研究

采用熵值法、基尼系数、探索性空间统计分析等方法从时间、空间两个维度对2007-2016年中国35个大中城市创新能力的评价、时空格局与演化规律进行了可视化分析。结果表明:(1)从时间维度看,大中城市创新能力在先期提升明显,末期有所回落,但仍呈现出整体上的提升;知识创新能力>政府支持与服务>创新基础环境>技术创新能力,技术短板突出;城市间创新能力的差异有向优化均衡方向发展的趋势,但创新基础环境的空间失衡加剧;G2> G1、G4> G3,城市之间创新能力的差异主要集中在技术创新能力上。(2)从空间维度看,莫兰检验显示样本期内城市创新能力存在显著的空间自相关性;与先期相比,2016年创新能力高水平城市数量增加,且表现出了更强的空间"集群化"特征,总体上呈现出"东高西低"的空间格局,具有明显的经济依赖性;样本期内大中城市创新能力的局部集聚模式变化不大,体现出一定的时空惯性,且高高集聚模式的城市具有较强的经济依赖特征;创新冷热点总体上呈"东热西冷"的空间分布格局。

Evaluation of Urban Innovation Ability and Evolution of Spatial and Temporal Pattern

This paper makes a visual analysis about the evaluation,spatial and temporal pattern,and evolution law of 35 large and medium-sized citie’s innovation ability durning 2007-2016,by entropy method,Gini coefficient and exploratory spatial data analysis.Results show that:(1) From the perspective of time,the innovation ability of large and medium-sized cities has been improved obviously in the early stage,and has declined in the later stage,but it still shows an overall improvement;knowledge innovation ability>government support and service>innovation basic environment>technology innovative ability,which means that technology is obviously backward;the difference of innovation ability between cities tends to optimize and balance,but the spatial imbalance of basic environment is intensified;G2> G1,G4> G3,which means that the difference of innovation ability between cities mainly focuses on technology innovative ability.(2) From the perspective of spatial,Moran’s test shows that there is a significant spatial autocorrelation of urban innovation ability during the sample period;compared with the early period,the number of cities with high innovation ability increased in 2016;it shows a stronger spatial "clustering" feature and spatial pattern of "east high and west low",which has obvious economic dependence.The local aggregation pattern of innovation ability of large and medium-sized cities during the sample period has not changed much,reflecting a certain time and space inertia.The cities with high agglomeration mode have strong economic dependence characteristics;on the whole,the innovation hot spots shows a spatial distribution pattern of "east hot and west cold".