REBUILDING THE EASTERN BALTIC COD STOCK UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (PART II): TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE COSTS OF A MARINE PROTECTED AREA |
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| Authors: | CHRISTINE RÖCKMANN RICHARD S. J. TOL UWE A. SCHNEIDER MICHAEL A. ST. JOHN |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies IJmuiden, The Netherlands International Max‐Planck Research School for Maritime Affairs Hamburg, Germany Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science Hamburg, Germany
E‐mail: christine.rockmann@wur.nl;2. Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science Hamburg, Germany Economic and Social Research Institute Dublin, Ireland Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA;3. Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science Hamburg, Germany International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria;4. Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Hamburg University Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science Hamburg, Germany |
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| Abstract: | Abstract This study adds a cost analysis of the Eastern Baltic cod fishery to the existing model presented in Röckmann et al. [2007a] . As cost data on this international fishery do not exist, data from Denmark are extrapolated to the whole international fishery. Additionally, unit and total variable costs are simulated, and the sensitivity to a set of different cost–stock and cost–output elasticities is tested. The study supports preliminary conclusions that a temporary marine reserve policy, which focuses on protecting the Eastern Baltic cod spawning stock in the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) subdivision 25, is a valuable fisheries management tool to (i) rebuild the overexploited Eastern Baltic cod stock and (ii) increase operating profits. The negative effects of climate change can be postponed for at least 20 years—depending on the assumed rate of future climate change. Including costs in the economic analysis does not change the ranking of management policies as proposed in the previous study where costs were neglected. |
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| Keywords: | Baltic cod cost– stock elasticity cost‐output elasticity sensitivity analysis climate change scenario management policy temporal marine reserve |
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