Temporal variations of long-term correlations in seismic activity fluctuations

The scaling behavior of the 1998-2009 seismicity in Guerrero, southern Mexico, was studied by means of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). We found that inter-seismic periods are correlated with a transition in the scaling behavior at about 200 seismic events. Correlations are relatively weak for small time scales. However, for large time scales, correlations are associated with a 1/f fractional process, indicating that the seismicity pattern emerges from a self-organized critical state. Temporal variations of the scaling exponent along years computed from the DFA indicate the presence of a quasi-biennial cycle in the seismicity correlations. This cyclic behavior was apparently triggered by the large 2001-2002 slow slip event in the Guerrero seismic gap. Besides, the significant seismic events (M_w>5) originate, on the average, at deeper regions in each cycle.