Iterative model-based experimental design for efficient uncertainty minimization of chemical mechanisms

The uncertainties of chemical kinetic model parameters induce uncertainties in model predictions. Automatic optimization and uncertainty minimization techniques have been developed to constrain these uncertainties based on sets of experimental target data for quantities of interest. While such methods were frequently used to optimize models for relatively well-studied systems with large numbers of available targets, only few of these experimental data points may be of crucial importance. In addition, for novel fuel candidates such as biofuels and synthetic fuels, the number of available measurements is generally limited. Thus, an important aspect to be explored in this context is the number of experimental data points required to achieve a certain degree of uncertainty reduction, and the determination of optimal experimental conditions for these. To target this question, a model-based experimental design framework based on the criterion of D-optimality is used in the present work to automatically identify these optimal conditions. As an example, the auto-ignition of dimethyl ether is investigated. The majority of experiments with high priority cover the intermediate- and low-temperature regimes, where the employed prior model exhibits the largest prediction uncertainties. It is also found that 90 % of the maximum observed reduction of average prediction uncertainty in ignition delay times can be achieved based on only the ten most informative experiments alone. The results thus demonstrate that few well-selected measurements allow for efficient model uncertainty reduction, and the employed approach provides an effective means of identifying the optimal conditions, which is useful for further experimental investigation. On the other hand, the inclusion of more experiments into the calibration process still provides additional benefit in terms of the posterior uncertainties of a number of important model parameters, which points to the importance of taking such data into account in case of their availability.