基于贝叶斯网络的船舶污染事故应急预案完备性评估

根据船舶污染事故应急预案涉及的事件和事件之间的逻辑关系构架了应急预案的故障树结构, 将故障树结构贝叶斯网络化, 构建了标准贝叶斯网络图, 由此建立一种船舶污染事故应急预案完备性评估的新方法. 利用该方法对市级船舶污染事故应急预案的缺失事件进行了分析, 评估了预案的完备度, 并与其他评估方法进行比较, 验证了该方法有效.

Evaluation method based on Bayesian network for completeness of emergency plan of ship pollution accident

The fault tree structure of the emergency plan is structured according to the events involved in the ship pollution accident emergency plan and the logical relationship between the incidents. The fault tree structure is transformed into a Bayesian network, in which a standard Bayesian network diagram is constructed, and a new method for assessing the completeness of emergency plans for ship pollution accidents is proposed. The method is used to analyze the missing events of the emergency plan for ship pollution accidents taking place in cities, and to evaluate the completeness of the plan, as well as to compare it with other evaluation methods, with the effectiveness of the proposed method being verified.