居民生活私人交通碳排放驱动因素的“三级分解”模型

突破以往采用难以保证精确性估算数据的局限,根据居民生活私人交通所消耗的能源种类,利用官方统计年鉴中的数据,在保证数据真实性的基础上,基于扩展的IPAT与LMDI模型,构建一个包含居民私人交通碳排放强度、碳排放结构、交通消费倾向、收入、家庭规模与户数6个因素的居民私人交通碳排放驱动因素的"三级分解模型",对居民生活私人碳排放及其驱动因素进行核算.结果建议进一步降低居民私人交通碳排放强度,提高居民能源消费的利用效率;同时鼓励发展小排量与新能源汽车消费,并且大力发展公共交通,倡导居民出行多采用公共交通工具出行,引导节能减排的出行方式.

Three-Level Decomposition Model of Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions From Household Private Transportation

This paper not only tries to break through the limitations of estimated data before which is difficult to ensure the accuracy,according to the kinds of energy consumption of household private transportation,based on the official statistical yearbook to ensure the accuracy,but also builds a three-level decomposition model of driving factors of carbon emission from household private transportation having Carbon emission intensity,Carbon emission structure,consumption item,propensity to consumption,income and so on by extended IPAT-LMDI model.The results try to suggest to further reduce the intensity of carbon emissions from private transportation,and improve the utilization efficiency of energy consumption;and encourage the development of small displacement and new energy automobile consumption,vigorously develop public transport,promote residents to travel more public transport travel,to guide the way of energy saving and emission reduction.