基于组合方法的机场航油销售量预测研究——以新疆为例

为了使预测更为准确,采用了三种模型加权组合的方法对机场航油销售量预测进行了组合预测.探讨了影响新疆机场航油销售量的三大因素,并对"十三五"期间各年航油销售量进行预测与研究分析.通过研究新疆机场航油销售量与旅客吞吐量、货邮吞吐量和起降架次之间的关联关系,通过建立相关系数模型、新陈代谢灰色GM(1,1)模型和弹性系数模型对新疆"十三五"期间新疆机场航油销售量进行预测.研究结果表明,此组合模型能够较为准确的预测新疆"十三五"期间的机场航油销售量,为航油设施、设备的规划提供了理论依据.

Based on Combination Method to Research for Airport Fuel Sales Forcasting

In order to make the prediction more accurate,it uses three methods of weighted combination model to forecast for airport fuel sales.This paper discusses on three factors influencing Xinjiang airport fuel sales and make the prediction and analysis of fuel sales during the years of "13th Five-Year".Through the research on relationship between Xinjiang airport fuel sales,passenger throughput,cargo throughput and movements.By establishing a correlation coefficient model,the new supersedes the old of grey GM (1,1.) model and elastic coefficient model to forecast Xinjiang airport fuel sales during the "13th Five-Year".The results show that this model can accurately predict the Xinjiang airport fuel sales during the "13th Five-Year" and also provide a theoretical basis for fuel facilities and equipment planning.