加权微分建模的初步研究

加权建模是必要的,微分建模是重要的,把二者结合起来,进行加权微分建模既必要也重要.给出了常用模型的微分建模结果,讨论了加权建模中的计算和权重选择问题,探讨了加权微分建模的思路和方法,并结合典型数据验证了该方法的有效性和稳定性.象加权建模一样,加权微分建模的精度、实用价值等,是和权重确定得合理与否紧密相联;应先进行模拟,以与近期实际值或典型样本相差最小的参数所对应的模型为准.

A Pilot Study of Weighted Differential Modeling

Weighted modeling is necessary,differential modeling is important,combining them together,carrying through weighted differential modeling is both necessary and important. This paper presents the results of common models′ differential modeling,discusses the issues when calculating and selecting the weights,probes into weighted differential modeling′s reason and method,and validates the method′s validity and stability.Like weighted modeling,weighted differential modeling′s precision,practical value and so on,tie up closely with the weights′ rationality;so we should carrying through simulating,select the model corresponding with the parameters which have the least differences with the factual value in the near future or representative samples.