Heavy tailed durations of regional rainfall |
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Authors: | Harry Pavlopoulos Jan Picek Jana Jure?ková |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, 76 Patission Str., GR-10434 Athens, Greece;(2) Department of Applied Mathematics, Technical University in Liberec, Studentská 2, 461 17 Liberec, Czech Republic;(3) Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Charles University, Sokolovská 83, 186 75 Praha 8, Czech Republic |
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Abstract: | Durations of rain events and drought events over a given region provide important information about the water resources of
the region. Of particular interest is the shape of upper tails of the probability distributions of such durations. Recent
research suggests that the underlying probability distributions of such durations have heavy tails of hyperbolic type, across
a wide range of spatial scales from 2 km to 120 km. These findings are based on radar measurements of spatially averaged rain
rate (SARR) over a tropical oceanic region. The present work performs a nonparametric inference on the Pareto tail-index of
wet and dry durations at each of those spatial scales, based on the same data, and compares it with conclusions based on the
classical Hill estimator. The results are compared and discussed.
The authors express sincere thanks to the Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach (MFO) for facilitating their collaboration
under a “Research in Pairs” project hosted at MFO during March 5–25, 2006. The research of the second and third authors was supported by the project
LC06024. |
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Keywords: | wet and dry durations of regional rainfall quantile multiscaling heavy tails Pareto tail-index semi-parametric statistical inference |
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