中国近50年气候破纪录温度事件发生概率分析

随着全球变暖趋势的不断增强，破纪录温度事件（record breaking temperature events, RBTE）发生的频次呈现不断增加的特点.基于已知当前年份的温度记录，未来五年内这个记录被打破的概率是多少？即未来五年内发生新的RBTE的概率是多少？这是目前国内外学术界关注的前沿科学问题之一.文中基于概率统计模型研究在不同情景下RBTE发生概率，并与实际观测资料检测结果作对比分析，研究近50年中国RBTE发生概率的变化与全球增暖的关系.结果显示，RBTE发生概率的大小依赖于温度的增长趋势和相 关键词： 破纪录温度事件 全球增暖 极端事件

Analysis of climate record breaking temperature events in China during the past 50 years

The occurrence of record breaking temperature events （RBTE） became more and more frequent under the background of global warming. What is the probability that the current temperature record will be broken in the next five years? In this study, answers are provided by given a variety of simple statistical models for temperature, and the relationship between the probability of RBTE of China and the global warming is explored by comparative analysis of the probability of RBTE in the last 50 years. The results show that the frequency of RBTE is influenced by global warming and the autocorrelation. This study quantitatively estimates the relationship between the probability of RBTE and global warming, which can deepen our knowledge about the in-creasing frequency and amplitude of RBTE under the background of global warming.
Keywords： record breaking temperature events global warming extreme events