低碳电网扩张策略:以南方电网公司为例

研究了需求随机环境下电力企业关于电源建设与电力调度的最优决策;考虑电源机组的能源结构约束与运营发电期内的碳排放总量约束,构建了以总成本最小化为目标的带补偿二阶段随机规划模型;定性分析了模型的最优解与装机容量等其它参数之间的联系;以南方电网公司为例,基于真实的数据并考虑政府的规划建议与企业自身的低碳化发展要求,利用情景生成法求解随机规划模型。结果反映了电力系统发展过程中环保绩效与总成本之间的矛盾之外,为企业在实践运作中计划期的电力建设决策以及运营期的发电决策提供了一些有价值的建议。

Low-carbon Generation Grid Expansion Strategy: A Case Study from China Southern Power Grid

To describe the optimal grid’s decisions of generator construction and power generation under stochastic environment, a recourse model with respect to energy structure and emission constraints is developed to minimize the total cost within the production cycle. The relationship of generator capacity and optimal solution along with other parameters is analytically discussed. A real case study from the China Southern Power Grid is studied. To solve the stochastic programming model, a scenario generation method is addressed on the realistic data. In the meantime, the related government planning proposals and company’s low-carbon development schedules are considered while building the constraints. The result from the numerical analysis reflects the paradox from keeping economic development and controlling the emission. The suggestions concerning the power grid construction in planning horizon and generation strategy in operation period are provided with practical value.