地震预报的新途径--加卸载响应比理论

从力学角度看,地震的孕育过程实质上是孕震区介质的损伤演化过程,这个过程主要是一个力学过程．但解决与地震预测有关的力学问题与工程中的力学问题有许多不同之处．通常力学问题的解决需要知道其本构关系、边界条件、初始条件以及某些力学量的变化历史(如流变)．但是在地震孕育过程中它们却是未知的或不完全知道的．人们知道的只是地壳中某些物理量的变化．由此提出了加卸载响应比作为一种地震预测的新途径,并简述了加卸载响应比的基本概念、实际应用及一些最新结果．

A new approach to earthquake prediction-load/unload response ratio (LURR) theory

From the viewpoint of mechanics, the essence of seismogenic process is the damage evolution of the focal media, so it is mainly a mechanical process. But the earthquake prediction is different from other mechanics problems in engineering. The constitutive law, boundary condition, initial condition and the history of some mechanics quantities (such as rheology) must be known in a resolvable mechanics problem in engineering. But in earthquake generation they are unknown or almost unknown, and only the variation of some physical quantities in the earth crust can be measured. Prom this consideration, the concept of load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed as a new approach to earthquake prediction. In this paper the basic concepts, case-examination and some new results of LURR are introduced.