巡游出租车运价动态调整系统动力学模型

合理的巡游出租车运价体系是缓解行业矛盾和促进行业良性发展的重要保障.为了充分体现运价在供需调节中的杠杆作用,运用系统动力学构建了巡游出租车运价动态调整模型.以宁波市巡游车和网约车运营数据对模型参数进行标定,验证了模型的有效性;以市场供需平衡为目标,分别模拟了高峰、低峰不同需求水平下动态加价、减价对市场供需平衡状态的影响分析以及不同网约车吸引度水平下巡游出租车运价动态调整策略.模型结果表明:(1)当运价增加0.6元km~(-1)时,可使高峰时段供需接近平衡状态,有效地抑制了高峰需求水平,且保证了巡游车运营总体收益增加;(2)当巡游车和网约车市场业务量之比约为10:4.5和10:8时,巡游车加价分别为0.6和-0.4元km~(-1),当巡游车处于竞争优势时,适度加价可期获得更大收益;处于劣势时,适度降价以提高自身竞争能力.

System dynamics model for dynamic adjustment of cruising taxi fares

In order to fully exploit the leverage of taxi fare in the balance between supply and demand, a dynamic adjustment model of cruising taxi fares is constructed using system dynamics. Taking the market supply-and-demand balance as the target, in this paper the dynamic increase of price and the influence analysis of price reduction is simulated on the market supply-and-demand balance under different peak and low peak demand levels, and the dynamic adjustment strategy of cruising taxi fares under different levels of ride-hailing attraction. The results of the model show that: (1) when the taxi fare increases by 0.6RMB·km-1, the supply and demand in the peak period can be close to the equilibrium state, which effectively inhibits the peak demand level, and ensures the increase of the overall operating income of cruising cars; (2) when the business proportion of cruising cars and online ride-hailing cars is about 10:4.5 and 10:8, respectively, the markup of cruising cars is 0.6 and -0.4RMB·km-1. When the cruising cars are on a competitive advantage side, the moderate markup can attain greater benefits. Otherwise, moderate price reduction is required to boost their competitiveness