食品卫生安全保障体系数学模型的研究

主要针对食品安全保障体系中的食物摄入量模型、污染物分布模型和风险评估模型做了以下研究:提出一种基于多层次划分法的抽样方案设计抽样,针对食品的分类问题,提出一种基于贡献率的食品分类法;提出利用广义g·h分布估计污染物的偏态分布的方法;进一步基于Bootstrap法提出了一种利用少量数据再抽样估计偏态分布特性的方法;提出一种尾部放大法,巧妙地将概率搜索和理论分析相结合,实现高精度地估计污染物摄入量的右分位点.此外,对相关的几个理论问题进行研究,并基于Monte-Carlo模拟给出相应的解决方案.

Research on Mathematical Model of Food Health and Security System

The paper mainly conducts the following research on food intake model,pollutant distribution model and risk assessment model of food health and security system model.A mult-level division method is proposed to design sampling scheme and a contribution ratio based classification to Category food.Then,we propose two novel methods to estimate probability distribution function of skewness distribution random variable,one is based on generalized g·h distribution and the other is bootstrap method.Both of the two methods are proved to be competent.Next,an enlarged tail method is proposed to estimate the right division point of intake of pollutants with high accuracy.In addition,we also study several theoretical issues related,and give corresponding solutions based on Monte-Carlo simulation.