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Time-series analysis of foreign exchange rates using time-dependent pattern entropy
Authors:Ryuji Ishizaki  Masayoshi Inoue
Affiliation:1. Faculty of Integrated Human Studies and Social Sciences, Fukuoka Prefectural University, Tagawa 825-8585, Japan;2. Professor Emeritus of Kagoshima University, Department of Physics, Kagoshima 890-0065, Japan
Abstract:
Time-dependent pattern entropy is a method that reduces variations to binary symbolic dynamics and considers the pattern of symbols in a sliding temporal window. We use this method to analyze the instability of daily variations in foreign exchange rates, in particular, the dollar–yen rate. The time-dependent pattern entropy of the dollar–yen rate was found to be high in the following periods: before and after the turning points of the yen from strong to weak or from weak to strong, and the period after the Lehman shock.
Keywords:Time-dependent pattern entropy   Financial time series   Exchange rate   Symbolic dynamics
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