Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model |
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| Authors: | Jennifer Perez-Oregon Fernando Angulo-Brown Nicholas Vassiliou Sarlis |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Solid Earth Physics Institute, Physics Department, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos, 157 84 Athens, Greece;2.Departamento de Física, Escuela Superior de Física y Matemáticas, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, UP Zacatenco C.P., Mexico City 07738, Mexico;3.Section of Condensed Matter Physics, Physics Department, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos, 157 84 Athens, Greece |
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| Abstract: | Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance. |
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| Keywords: | earthquakes avalanches natural time analysis Olami-Feder-Christensen model nowcasting earthquakes |
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