基于产业结构优化的节能减排离散动态演化模型

从中国能源环境现状出发,基于产业结构发展趋势及其演变规律,运用动态投入产出分析法,对现有数据进行分析,结合演化理论,提出能源消耗演化目标和污染排放演化目标,建立节能减排下的离散动态演化模型,深入探讨节能减排策略和优化产业结构方法.模型对中国2000-2008年的数据进行拟合检验,得出中国三次产业经济产值、中国能源消耗量及污染排放量,并将其与实际情况进行比较,从节能减排和产业结构优化两个方面给予实证分析.基于建立的模型,结合情景分析法对中国2015年的经济产值、能源消耗及污染排放进行预测并对预测结果进行演化情景分析为中国制定相应的节能减排策略、实现产业结构优化提供了理论依据,为中国实现能源环境可持续发展提供了一个全新的视角和路线.

Discrete Dynamic Evolution Model of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Based on the Industrial Structure Optimization

Considering the situation of China's energy and environment,and based on the development tendency and the evolution rule of industrial structure,this paper analyzes the existing data using input-output analysis method.Based on the evolution theory,the research puts forward energy consumption and pollution emission evolution goals,and establishes a discrete dynamic evolution model on the basis of energy conservation and emission reduction.It is to study the strategy of energy conservation and emission reduction and in search of the method of optimizing industrial structure.The model calculates the data from 2000 to2008,getting the economic output of each industry,national energy consumption and pollution emission.Compare the calculated values with the actual value of economy,energy consumption and pollution emission.Energy conservation and emission reduction and industrial structure optimization are analyzed empirically.Based on the model and using analysis of scenario,the paper forecasts the economic output,energy consumption and pollution emission of China in2015,and analyzes the results.It provides theoretical basis for formulating the corresponding strategies to reduce energy consumption and emissions.In the long run,it provides a new perspective for the sustainable development of energy and environment.