技术壁垒对我国装备制造业影响的GTAP模型分析

作为"世界工厂"的中国,已连续5年保持世界第一制造业大国的地位.装备制造业作为制造业的核心,逐渐发挥出推动国民经济发展的基础性作用,同时引导着制造业的整体转型升级进程.但在全球经济复苏缓慢的背景下,发达国家兴起的"再工业化"浪潮和发展中国家对本国装备制造业企业的保护加速了技术壁垒在全球范围内的扩散.作为新型非关税壁垒代表的技术壁垒,凭借其双重性、隐蔽性和多样性,对我国装备制造业的发展造成影响.利用GTAP模型,分别模拟5%、10%和20%幅度下的技术壁垒提高对我国装备制造业各产业的产出、贸易量的冲击,并依据模拟结果提出装备制造业应对技术壁垒的建议.

Impact of Technical Barriers to China's Equipment Manufacturing Industry:Based on GTAP Model

China,known as the World' s Factory,has been maintaining the largest scale of manufacturing industry for 5 consecutive years.Equipment manufacturing industry,the core of manufacturing,plays a fundamental role in the development of national economy,leading the process of transformation and upgrading of manufacturing as a whole.However,in the background of slow recovery of the world economy,it is the re-industrialization in developed countries and the protection of the corresponding corporations in developing countries that speed the spread of technical barriers worldwide.As the representative of new non-tariff barriers,technical barriers impose impacts on China' s equipment manufacturing industry by their duality,invisibility and diversity.Based on Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)model,this paper makes a stimulation of the impacts of technical barriers to the output and trade volume of China's equipment manufacturing industry,with 5%,10%and 20%respectively of the rising extent,and then puts forward some countermeasures for the industry to cope with the technical barriers.