我国国债规模对宏观经济影响实证分析

随着以希腊债务危机为导火索的欧洲债务危机的愈演愈烈,国债对宏观经济的影响再一次成为了经济学讨论的热点.首先从直观图形着手,运用H-P滤度法去除趋势后,计算各变量的偏离趋势百分比,对比国债规模代替变量与宏观经济效应代替变量之间的偏离趋势图,从图形得到的定量关系为后面的实证分析做好准备.然后进一步进行协整分析,并在向量自回归(VAR)框架下通过脉冲响应函数考察变量之间的相互影响路径,最后通过建立误差修正模型(ECM)分析各个变量之间的长期均衡关系和短期波动特征,以量化各变量之间影响程度的大小.全面系统地研究了国债对宏观经济增长的影响程度并做出实证分析,对于深刻认识国债的本质,规避国债的风险,科学合理地制定国债政策有着重要的理论价值和实际意义.

The Empirical Analysis of Chinese National Debt Influence on Macroeconomic

As with Greek debt crisis for the European debt crisis triggered the increasingly fierce,the national debt issuance and administration once again be the economics of hot debate.This paper from the intuitive to graphics,using H-P filtering method to remove trend,calculate the percentage deviation from the variable trend,compared with the national debt scale instead of variable and macroeconomic effects between variables instead of deviation from the trend chart,from graphics get the quantitative relationship for the empirical analysis to be ready.And then further cointegration analysis,and in vector auto-regressive(VAR) framework through the impulse response function study the interaction between variable path,the final through the establishment of the error correction model(ECM) analysis between variables of the long-term equilibrium relation and short-term fluctuation characteristics,to quantify the variables influence degree between the size.This paper comprehensively and systematically study the national debt on macro economic growth and make the influence degree of the empirical analysis,and a profound understanding the essence of national debt for and avoid the risk of national debt,set up a rational policy national debt has important theoretic value and practical significance.