我国就业人数的数学模型探析及前景预测

基于经济学理论和逐步回归分析方法优选影响就业较大的9个指标,建立了城镇就业人口数与该9个指标之间的数学模型.针对建筑、交通运输行业,东部、西部地区以及不同学历问题,建立了城镇就业人数的较精确数学模型.考虑国家宏观调控政策的影响,利用灰色模型和非线性回归模型优选预测2009年及2010年上半年的就业前景.最后,对提高我国城镇就业人口数提出相关建议.

Mathematical Model and Prospect Forecast of Employment in China

Nine indexes which affect the employment closely are optimized and selected based on the economic theories and stepwise regression.Mathematical model of urban employment is established on such nine indexes.Besides,the more accurate models of the number of urban employment are established for the problems of construction,transportation, the eastern and western regions and the different academic qualifications respectively. Considering the impact of national macro-control policies,the employment prospect in 2009 and the first half of 2010 is optimized and forecasted with grey forecast model and nonlinear regression model.Finally,some advices are proposed to improve the urban employment figure.