| 自适应灰色欧拉模型的优化及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王安,杨雨.自适应灰色欧拉模型的优化及其应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2021(6):297-302. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王安 杨雨 |
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| 作者单位： | 平顶山学院数学与统计学院;平顶山学院计算机学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(61702291,11701307);河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划资助项目(19HASTIT029);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(21A110019,19B110011,20A110030,21B110004,20B110013);平顶山学院高层次人才科研启动基金(PXY-BSQD-2017006);平顶山学院青年科研基金项目(PXY-QNJJ-2019009)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 灰色预测模型已经在很多领域获得成功的应用,但是该方法的模型性能还可以进一步提高.为此,提出了一种新的灰色欧拉模型GEM(1,1)和OSGEM(1,1),给出了参数的最小二乘法计算公式,并以微分方程为推理过程,得到了GEM(1,1)模型和OSGEM(1,1)模型的时间响应序列.利用2002-2015年的数据建立预测模型,利用2016-2018年的数据评估模型的准确性.结果表明,OSGEM(1,1)模型优于其他模型.
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)模型 GEM(1 1)模型 OSGEM(1 1)模型 最小二乘法 |
Optimized Self-adapting Grey Euler Model and Its Application |
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| WANG An,YANG Yu.Optimized Self-adapting Grey Euler Model and Its Application[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2021(6):297-302. |
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| Authors: | WANG An YANG Yu |
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| Institution: | (School of Mathematics and Statistics,Pingdingshan University,Pingdingshan 467000,China;School of Computer,Pingdingshan University,Key Laboratory for Germplasm Innovation and Utilization of Eco-economical Woody Plants in Henan Province,Pingdingshan 467000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Although the grey forecasting model has been successfully employed in various fields,the models show its performance could be further improved.For this purpose,this paper proposes a new grey euler model termed GEM(1,1) model and the self-adapting model of GEM(1,1),which is abbreviated as OSGEM(1,1),develops a calculative formula for solving the parameters of the novel GEM model through the least squares method,and obtains the time response sequence of GEM model and OSGEM(1,1) model by using differential equation as a procedure for reasoning.The data from 2002 to 2015 are used to build the prediction models,and the data from 2016 to 2018 are used to assess the modelling accuracy.The results show that the OSGEM(1,1) model outperforms the other models. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1)model GEM(1 1)model OSGEM(1 1)model least square method |
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