Evaluation of the Kushida Method of short-term earthquake prediction

Kushida and Kushida found that FM radio waves from stations at distances over-the-horizon are received before earthquakes. Based on this finding, since the mid-1990’s, the Kushidas have been practicing “Earthquake Precursor Detection Experiment”. The performance of the Kushida method during 2000–2003 has been evaluated by checking their predictions against the actual seismicity. During the period, there were 92 Kushida predictions mentioning the possibility of M ≥ 5.5 event, whereas there were 49 M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes in the Japanese region. If the criteria for successful prediction are set as: the errors in date is less than one day, epicentral position is roughly within specified area, and error in M is less than 0.5, the success rate was 20% and the alarm rate was 12%. If we relax the criteria to: the errors in dates within 10 days, epicenter within additional 100 km of specified area and the magnitude error less than 1.0, the success rate was 40% and the alarm rate was 27%. These rates may look insufficient for a practical prediction method. Considering, however, the fact that no other short-term prediction has ever been made in Japan so far it is a significant achievement. Moreover, it was found that in almost all failed predictions, meaningful signals were detected although the interpretations were incorrect. This indicates that the method is promising provided further investigation is carried out. The same evaluation at the M ≥ 6.0 level showed that the general performance was similar to the M ≥ 5.5 level, except that both success rate and alarm rate were lower at the M ≥ 6.0 level. If this unexpected finding is real, it might be inherent to the methodology using scattering of short-wave length radio waves as suggested by M. Hayakawa and may contain important information in understanding the earthquake physics and LAI-coupling. The results of the present study indicate strongly that the earthquake prediction research using anomalous transmission of VHF FM radio waves should be enhanced in parallel with complementary research in other frequency ranges.     

Earth surface effects on active faults: An eigenvalue asymptotic analysis

We study in this paper an eigenvalue problem (of Steklov type), modeling slow slip events (such as silent earthquakes, or earthquake nucleation phases) occurring on geological faults. We focus here on a half space formulation with traction free boundary condition: this simulates the earth surface where displacements take place and can be picked up by GPS measurements. We construct an appropriate functional framework attached to a formulation suitable for the half space setting. We perform an asymptotic analysis of the solution with respect to the depth of the fault. Starting from an integral representation for the displacement field, we prove that the differences between the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions attached to the half space problem and those attached to the free space problem, is of the order of d^-2, where d is a depth parameter: intuitively, this was expected as this is also the order of decay of the derivative of the Green's function for our problem. We actually prove faster decay in case of symmetric faults. For all faults, we rigorously obtain a very useful asymptotic formula for the surface displacement, whose dominant part involves a so called seismic moment. We also provide results pertaining to the analysis of the multiplicity of the first eigenvalue in the line segment fault case. Finally we explain how we derived our numerical method for solving for dislocations on faults in the half plane. It involves integral equations combining regular and Hadamard's hypersingular integration kernels.     

Modeling of non-stationary ground motion using the mean reverting stochastic process

This paper presents a new method for modeling amplitude and frequency non-stationary earthquake ground motions using a scalar first order dynamic mean reverting stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion with parametric time varying coefficients. It determines the proper relationship between these time varying parametric coefficients and presents the statistical and probability distribution characteristics of the response solution. It demonstrates the applicability of the method by presenting some simulations of amplitude and frequency non-stationary earthquake ground motions. The verification of the amplitude and frequency non-stationary contents of the mean reverting stochastic ground motions is demonstrated using the Hilbert–Huang transform method. Also a corresponding interpretation between the coefficients of the proposed model and the coefficients of the usual oscillatory second order differential equation driven by white Gaussian noise is presented along with some comments how it can be applied to simulate ground motions consistent with acceleration target records such as boxcar, trapezoidal, other exponential functions, or compound and target records at source, near field, and far field distances.     

Active TLCGD control of plane asymmetric buildings under earthquake excitation

The sealed,tuned liquid column gas damper (TLCGD) with gas-spring effect extends the frequency range of application and efficiently increases the modal structural damping.Active tuned liquid column gas damper (ATLCGD) is developed for the vibration control of plane asymmetric buildings subjected to earthquake excitation,improving the performance of the passive control scheme.The active behaviour is obtained by adjusting the pressure at the end of the liquid column using a pressurised reservoir.The classical linear quadratic regulator (LQR) design is presented as a straightforward approach to optimal control.Numerical simulations indicate a significant vibration reduction of plane asymmetric buildings by active control within the strong motion of the dynamic response.     

北海市场地地震工程地质环境特征和地震设防区划

本文以地处南流江冲积成因为主的古滨海平原的地貌、松散沉积物及其工程地质特性、场地土、场地类别、场地周期等环境特点为基础, 对北海市进行了地震设防区划。将北海市划分为残丘区、台地区和阶地海滩区三个地质地貌单元和相应的三个地震设防分区, 每个地震设防区给出相应的地震影响系数。文中还对场地地震地质灾害进行了评估和预测。     

武汉地区地震效应影响研究

虽然武汉市地震影响及地震危险性的水平较低 ,强震也不是武汉市工程地质环境的主要问题 ,但在城市生命线工程和高层超高层建筑方面必须考虑单体抗震设防。而且 ,随着武汉市城市建设的不断发展 ,地震效应影响逐渐成为武汉市工程地质环境评价的一个重要因子。文章在分析了武汉地区地震动衰减规律 ,进行了地震危险性评价 ,深入研究了各土层动力参数性质的基础上 ,指出武汉地区地震地面破坏主要存在砂土液化和软土震陷两种型式及各自可能的空间分布.     

Direct Likelihood Evaluation for the Renewal Hawkes Process

An interesting extension of the widely applied Hawkes self-exiting point process, the renewal Hawkes (RHawkes) process, was recently proposed by Wheatley, Filimonov, and Sornette, which has the potential to significantly widen the application domains of the self-exciting point processes. However, they claimed that computation of the likelihood of the RHawkes process requires exponential time and therefore is practically impossible. They proposed two expectation–maximization (EM) type algorithms to compute the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the model parameters. Because of the fundamental role of likelihood in statistical inference, a practically feasible method for likelihood evaluation is highly desirable. In this article, we provide an algorithm that evaluates the likelihood of the RHawkes process in quadratic time, a drastic improvement from the exponential time claimed by Wheatley, Filimonov, and Sornette. We demonstrate the superior performance of the resulting MLEs of the model relative to the EM estimators through simulations. We also present a computationally efficient procedure to calculate the Rosenblatt residuals of the process for goodness-of-fit assessment, and a simple yet efficient procedure for future event prediction. The proposed methodologies were applied on real data from seismology and finance. An R package implementing the proposed methodologies is included in the supplementary materials.     

Unified scaling law in the coherent noise model

The waiting time distribution between successive events and the unified scaling law is studied using the coherent noise model. It is shown that, although this model generates uncorrelated event sizes and does not exhibit criticality, it still provides the unified scaling law. We argue the role of characteristic kink observed in the unified scaling law and the meaning of the parameter C$C$ used to fix the peak of the kink to unity. Our results indicate that the parameter C$C$ is indeed a physical quantity localizing the end of the linear tendency in the scaling law, which corresponds to the completion of the dominance of correlated events in time.     

Fisher–Shannon analysis of seismograms of tsunamigenic and non-tsunamigenic earthquakes

Recognizing the tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake presents a challenge in the context of studies devoted to early warnings of tsunami events. In this paper, we show the feasibility of discriminating between tsunamigenic and non-tsunamigenic earthquakes by analyzing seismograms on the basis of the Fisher–Shannon method, which is used to analyze the order/organization structure of a complex and nonstationary time series. The results obtained results show that by combining the measures of the Shannon entropy power and the Fisher information measure, the discrimination between the two groups—tsunamigenic and non-tsunamigenic earthquakes—is very efficiently achieved. These results could contribute to the assessment of tsunami early warning systems.