不确定环境下基于交叉评价的模糊综合评价方法

由于环境的不确定性,多属性决策中客观数据和主观因素并存,决策者很难做出精准的评判.借鉴DEA交叉评价的思想,将量化数据用交叉评价方法进行处理,得出平均交叉效率值作为模糊综合评价的指标进行二次评价.建立了不确定环境下基于交叉评价的模糊综合评价模型,并通过评价实例验证了模型的客观、全面性.     

Preference voting and project ranking using DEA and cross-evaluation

Cook and Kress (1990), using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as their starting point, proposed a procedure to rank order the candidates in a preferential election. Notionally, each candidate is permitted to choose the most favourable weights to be applied to his/her standings (first place, second place, etc. votes) in the usual DEA manner with the additional ‘assurance region’ restriction that the weight for a j place vote should be more than that for a j +1 amount. We consider that this freedom to choose weights is essentially illusory when maximum discrimination between the candidates is sought, in which case the weights used to evaluate and rank the candidates are as if imposed externally at the outset. To avoid this, we present an alternative procedure which retains Cook and Kress' central idea but where, as well as using each candidate's rating of him/herself, we now make use of each candidate's ratings of all the candidates. We regard the so-called cross-evaluation matrix as the summary of a self- and peer-rating process in which the candidates seek to interpret the voters preferences as favourably for themselves, relative to the other candidates, as possible. The problem then becomes one of establishing an overall rating for each candidate from these individual ratings. For this, for each candidate, we use a weighted average of all the candidates ratings of that candidate, where the weights themselves are in proportion to each candidate's overall rating. The overall ratings are therefore proportional to the components of the principal (left-hand) eigenvector of the cross-evaluation matrix. These ideas are then applied to the selection of R & D projects to comprise an R & D program, thus indicating thier wider applicability.