基于时变Copula模型的 基金收益率相依关系的应用研究

基于时变Copula模型,获得预测方差,确定单个基金收益率序列的边缘分布.利用常见的静态Copula和时变Copula模型对基金收益率序列间两两相依关系进行建模并进行对比分析.应用研究表明,基于MCMC方法的时变Copula模型能更有效地度量基金收益率序列的风险.     

Optimal entropic uncertainty relation for successive measurements in quantum information theory

We derive an optimal bound on the sum of entropic uncertainties of two or more observables when they are sequentially measured on the same ensemble of systems. This optimal bound is shown to be greater than or equal to the bounds derived in the literature on the sum of entropie uncertainties of two observables which are measured on distinct but identically prepared ensembles of systems. In the case of a two-dimensional Hilbert space, the optimum bound for successive measurements of two-spin components, is seen to be strictly greater than the optimal bound for the case when they are measured on distinct ensembles, except when the spin components are mutually parallel or perpendicular     

Sampling Consensus of 2nd-Order Multi-Agent Systems Based on Time-Varying Topology北大核心CSCD

基于速度一致位移差保持不变的一致性概念,研究了二阶多智能体系统在时变拓扑下的采样一致性问题。首先,引入虚拟领导者,将具有时变拓扑结构的多智能体系统的采样一致性问题转换为误差系统的采样控制稳定性问题。其次,通过预估采样误差,研究采样误差对系统达到一致性的影响。最后,应用Lyapunov稳定性理论,分析所构造的误差系统的稳定性,并给出该误差系统最终稳定的充分条件。数值仿真结果验证了理论分析的有效性和正确性。     

Exponential stability of discrete-time systems with slowly time-varying delays

Slowly time-varying delays are seldom, but do need to be, considered in the context of discrete-time systems. This paper addresses the exponential stability issue of discrete-time systems with slowly time-varying delays. The basic idea is to transform, by utilizing the switching transformation approach, the original system with slowly time-varying delays into an equivalent switched system with special switching signal. Different types of delays correspond to different types of switching signals, and the stability issue of the original system is converted into that of a switched system. It is the first time that the method of switched homogeneous polynomial Lyapunov function is applied to general delayed systems. Some sufficient exponential stability conditions for the original system are proposed in several situations. It is numerically shown that the conservativeness of the proposed conditions reduces as the degree of the switched homogeneous polynomial Lyapunov function increases.     

Precise bounds for the petersen time-varying real parameter uncertainty system stabilized via linear static controllers

Using a class of linear static controllers, we stabilize the Petersen open-loop two-dimensional linear system (Ref. 1), which consists of one time-varying uncertainty in the state matrixA and one timevarying uncertainty in the input matrixB. We show that the worst-case uncertainty strategy for the closed-loop system is a piecewise constant strategy of the angular state with three switches on the half-turn, –/2/2; it is unique with respect to a set of measure zero. Formulas are derived for the worst-case half-turn radius gainr _HT as a function of the parameters of the class of stabilizing linear static controllers. Using the class of scalar-quadratic Lyapunov functions, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for the closed-loop system to be robustly stable against all time-varying admissible uncertainties is thatr _HT be less than unity. The bound on the time-varying real parameter uncertainties for the closed-loop system to be robustly stable is derived for the class of linear static feedback controllers. We obtain stabilizing linear static controllers such that the bound is as close to infinity as desired. The derived results are compared with numerical results obtained using commerical robust-control software.     

Efficient computation of operator‐type response sensitivities for uncertainty quantification and predictive modeling: illustrative application to a spent nuclear fuel dissolver model

This work honors the 75th birthday of Professor Ionel Michael Navon by presenting original results highlighting the computational efficiency of the adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology for function‐valued operator responses by means of an illustrative paradigm dissolver model. The dissolver model analyzed in this work has been selected because of its applicability to material separations and its potential role in diversion activities associated with proliferation and international safeguards. This dissolver model comprises eight active compartments in which the 16 time‐dependent nonlinear differential equations modeling the physical and chemical processes comprise 619 scalar and time‐dependent model parameters, related to the model's equation of state and inflow conditions. The most important response for the dissolver model is the time‐dependent nitric acid in the compartment furthest away from the inlet, where measurements are available at 307 time instances over the transient's duration of 10.5 h. The sensitivities to all model parameters of the acid concentrations at each of these instances in time are computed efficiently by applying the adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology for operator‐valued responses. The uncertainties in the model parameters are propagated using the above‐mentioned sensitivities to compute the uncertainties in the computed responses. A predictive modeling formalism is subsequently used to combine the computational results with the experimental information measured in the compartment furthest from the inlet and then predict optimal values and uncertainties throughout the dissolver. This predictive modeling methodology uses the maximum entropy principle to construct an optimal approximation of the unknown a priori distribution for the a priori known mean values and uncertainties characterizing the model parameters and the computed and experimentally measured model responses. This approximate a priori distribution is subsequently combined using Bayes' theorem with the “likelihood” provided by the multi‐physics computational models. Finally, the posterior distribution is evaluated using the saddle‐point method to obtain analytical expressions for the optimally predicted values for the parameters and responses of both multi‐physics models, along with corresponding reduced uncertainties. This work shows that even though the experimental data pertains solely to the compartment furthest from the inlet (where the data were measured), the predictive modeling procedure used herein actually improves the predictions and reduces the predicted uncertainties for the entire dissolver, including the compartment furthest from the measurements, because this predictive modeling methodology combines and transmits information simultaneously over the entire phase‐space, comprising all time steps and spatial locations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development and assessment of an intrusive polynomial chaos expansion-based continuous adjoint method for shape optimization under uncertainties

This article contributes to the development of methods for shape optimization under uncertainties, associated with the flow conditions, based on intrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansion (iPCE) and continuous adjoint. The iPCE to the Navier–Stokes equations for laminar flows of incompressible fluids is developed to compute statistical moments of the Quantity of Interest which are, then, compared with those obtained through the Monte Carlo method. The optimization is carried out using a continuous adjoint-enabled, gradient-based loop. Two different formulations for the continuous adjoint to the iPCE PDEs are derived, programmed, and verified. Intrusive PCE methods for the computation of the statistical moments require mathematical development, derivation of a new system of governing equations and their numerical solution. The development is presented for a chaos order of two and two uncertain variables and can be used as a guide to those willing to extend this development to a different set of uncertain variables or chaos order. The developed method and software, programmed in OpenFOAM, is applied to two optimization problems pertaining to the flow around isolated airfoils with uncertain farfield conditions.     

Interval methods as a simulation tool for the dynamics of biological wastewater treatment processes with parameter uncertainties

This paper presents sophisticated interval algorithms for the simulation of discrete-time dynamical systems with bounded uncertainties of both initial conditions and system parameters. Since naive implementations of interval algorithms might lead to guaranteed enclosures of all system states which are too conservative to be practically useful, we present algorithmic extensions of classical approaches which are applicable to the simulation of non-cooperative systems with time-varying uncertain parameters. Overestimation arising in the interval evaluation of dynamical system models due to the wrapping effect is reduced by an exact pseudo-linear transformation of nonlinear state equations and by new heuristics for the subdivision of interval enclosures which especially prefer splitting of unstable intervals. To highlight the typical procedure for parameterization of interval-based simulation routines and to demonstrate their efficiency, a nonlinear model of biological wastewater treatment processes is discussed. For this application, we consider the maximum specific growth rate of substrate consuming bacteria as a time-varying uncertain parameter. Only worst-case bounds are assumed to be available for the range of this parameter while no information is provided about its actual variation rate.