A power-law distribution for tenure lengths of sports managers

We show that the tenure lengths for managers of sport teams follow a power law distribution with an exponent between 2 and 3. We develop a simple theoretical model which replicates this result. The model demonstrates that the empirical phenomenon can be understood as the macroscopic outcome of pairwise interactions among managers in a league, threshold effects in managerial performance evaluation, competitive market forces, and luck at the microscopic level.     

On the phase space approach to complexity

We elaborate in some detail on a new phase space approach to complexity, due to Y.-C. Zhang. We show in particular that the connection between maximal complexity and power law noise or correlations can be derived from a simple variational principle. For a 1D signal we find 1/f noise, in accordance with Zhang.     

Estimating tail probabilities of heavy tailed distributions with asymptotically zero relative error

Efficient estimation of tail probabilities involving heavy tailed random variables is amongst the most challenging problems in Monte-Carlo simulation. In the last few years, applied probabilists have achieved considerable success in developing efficient algorithms for some such simple but fundamental tail probabilities. Usually, unbiased importance sampling estimators of such tail probabilities are developed and it is proved that these estimators are asymptotically efficient or even possess the desirable bounded relative error property. In this paper, as an illustration, we consider a simple tail probability involving geometric sums of heavy tailed random variables. This is useful in estimating the probability of large delays in M/G/1 queues. In this setting we develop an unbiased estimator whose relative error decreases to zero asymptotically. The key idea is to decompose the probability of interest into a known dominant component and an unknown small component. Simulation then focuses on estimating the latter ‘residual’ probability. Here we show that the existing conditioning methods or importance sampling methods are not effective in estimating the residual probability while an appropriate combination of the two estimates it with bounded relative error. As a further illustration of the proposed ideas, we apply them to develop an estimator for the probability of large delays in stochastic activity networks that has an asymptotically zero relative error.      

Memory management optimization problems for integrated circuit simulators

In hardware design, it is necessary to simulate the anticipated behavior of the integrated circuit before it is actually cast in silicon. As simulation procedures are long due to the great number of tests to be performed, optimization of the simulation code is of prime importance. This paper describes two mathematical models for the minimization of the memory access times for a cycle-based simulator.An integrated circuit being viewed as a directed acyclic graph, the problem consists in building a graph order on the vertices, compatible with the relation order induced by the graph, in order to minimize a cost function that represents the memory access time. For both proposed cost functions, we show that the corresponding problems are NP-complete. However, we show that the special cases where the graphs are in-trees or out-trees can be solved in polynomial time.     

The unsatisfiability threshold revisited

The problem of determining the unsatisfiability threshold for random 3-SAT formulas consists in determining the clause to variable ratio that marks the experimentally observed abrupt change from almost surely satisfiable formulas to almost surely unsatisfiable. Up to now, there have been rigorously established increasingly better lower and upper bounds to the actual threshold value. In this paper, we consider the problem of bounding the threshold value from above using methods that, we believe, are of interest on their own right. More specifically, we show how the method of local maximum satisfying truth assignments can be combined with results for the occupancy problem in schemes of random allocation of balls into bins in order to achieve an upper bound for the unsatisfiability threshold less than 4.571. In order to obtain this value, we establish a bound on the q-binomial coefficients (a generalization of the binomial coefficients). No such bound was previously known, despite the extensive literature on q-binomial coefficients. Finally, to prove our result we had to establish certain relations among the conditional probabilities of an event in various probabilistic models for random formulas. It turned out that these relations were considerably harder to prove than the corresponding ones for unconditional probabilities, which were previously known.     

Complexity of flow time minimization in a crossdock truck scheduling problem with asymmetric handover relations

We address a novel truck scheduling problem arising in crossdocking logistics, in which inbound trucks carry items (pallets) which must be sorted and loaded onto outbound trucks. We minimize the utilisation of the warehouse by focusing on the synchronisation between the different related trucks. The problem is to assign the trucks to the doors of the warehouse and sequence them, in order to minimize the total time spent in the system by the pallets. We discuss the complexity of the problem, showing that even with a single door the problem is NP-hard in general, and discuss some special cases.     

A new algorithm for minimizing convex functions over convex sets

Let be a convex set for which there is an oracle with the following property. Given any pointz∈ℝ ⁿ the oracle returns a “Yes” ifz∈S; whereas ifz∉S then the oracle returns a “No” together with a hyperplane that separatesz fromS. The feasibility problem is the problem of finding a point inS; the convex optimization problem is the problem of minimizing a convex function overS. We present a new algorithm for the feasibility problem. The notion of a volumetric center of a polytope and a related ellipsoid of maximum volume inscribable in the polytope are central to the algorithm. Our algorithm has a significantly better global convergence rate and time complexity than the ellipsoid algorithm. The algorithm for the feasibility problem easily adapts to the convex optimization problem.