山西省农民家庭消费水平和结构分析

本文利用统计计量学方法对山西省农民家庭消费水平和消费结构的变化及原因进行了实证分析。建立了山西省农民人均消费的消费函数和山西省农民总消费支出与食品、衣着、住房、日用品、燃料及文化生活服务支出的关系模型，并通过模型分析解释了农民的消费结构，也为决策者提供一些有效的参考资料。     

Socio-Economic Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic in the U.S.

This paper proposes a dynamic cascade model to investigate the systemic risk posed by sector-level industries within the U.S. inter-industry network. We then use this model to study the effect of the disruptions presented by Covid-19 on the U.S. economy. We construct a weighted digraph G = (V,E,W) using the industry-by-industry total requirements table for 2018, provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). We impose an initial shock that disrupts the production capacity of one or more industries, and we calculate the propagation of production shortages with a modified Cobb–Douglas production function. For the Covid-19 case, we model the initial shock based on the loss of labor between March and April 2020 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The industries within the network are assigned a resilience that determines the ability of an industry to absorb input losses, such that if the rate of input loss exceeds the resilience, the industry fails, and its outputs go to zero. We observed a critical resilience, such that, below this critical value, the network experienced a catastrophic cascade resulting in total network collapse. Lastly, we model the economic recovery from June 2020 through March 2021 using BLS data.     

局部载荷作用简支板屈曲分析

根据能量原理,引入大挠度Von-Karman方程,求解了应力不连续简支板的屈曲问题,得到了临界载荷和临界应力计算系数.     

Effects of the Synergy of Hardness and Resilience on the Akron Abrasion Properties of SBR Vulcanizates

The hardness (H) and resilience (R) of rubber vulcanizates were combined together in this paper, named as hardness–resilience product (H⁴R), and its relationship with the Akron abrasion loss was investigated using various styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) vulcanizates possessing specific hardness and resilience characteristics as samples. For the unfilled SBR vulcanizates with different chain microstructure, possessing high elastic resilience and low hardness, the results showed that their Akron abrasion loss had a good linear relationship with the log(H⁴100R). This linear relationship also occurred when these SBRs were filled with 50 phr carbon black. For two particular types of SBR, after being filled with different fractions of carbon black and aged for different times, all their Akron abrasion losses (including unaged, aged for 24 h, and aged for 48 h) also had a good linear relationship with the log(H⁴100R). However, this linear relationship weakened for one of the SBRs after being aged for 48 h. In the high H⁴R region (the carbon black fractions being 60 and 70 phr), the data obviously deviated from the fitting curve due to the high hardness of the aged vulcanizates. However, after being filled with 50 phr of various kinds of carbon blacks, the relationships between abrasion loss and log(H⁴100R) were also approximately linear, with the correlation coefficient of the fitting curves being 0.99966 and 0.99878, respectively, for the two types of SBR.     

MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF DROUGHT RESILIENCE IN AGRICULTURE

Abstract. Ensuring drought resilience for farmers is an important policy concern. Yet, a quantitative treatment of the concept of drought resilience has been lacking in the literature. This paper designs a mathematical model of drought resilience to assess farmers’ survival strategies when faced with the prospect of repeated droughts. A key distinction is being made here between consecutive droughts and one‐off droughts, as it is the former, which is of most concern to farmers as well as policy makers. The mathematical model is generalized to incorporate the possibility of more than one set of a certain number of consecutive droughts occurring in the future. Findings indicate varying implications for groundwater sustainability when resilience outcomes are directly linked to the length of a farmer's drought planning horizon as well as to the planned minimum consumption during drought years.     

Split Orthogonal Arrays and Maximum Independent Resilient Systems of Functions

A system of (Boolean) functions in variables is called randomized if the functions preserve the property of their variables to be independent and uniformly distributed random variables. Such a system is referred to as -resilient if for any substitution of constants for any variables, where 0 i t, the derived system of functions in variables will be also randomized. We investigate the problem of finding the maximum number of functions in variables of which any form a -resilient system. This problem is reduced to the minimization of the size of certain combinatorial designs, which we call split orthogonal arrays. We extend some results of design and coding theory, in particular, a duality in bounding the optimal sizes of codes and designs, in order to obtain upper and lower bounds on . In some cases, these bounds turn out to be very tight. In particular, for some infinite subsequences of integers they allow us to prove that , , , , . We also find a connection of the problem considered with the construction of unequal-error-protection codes and superimposed codes for multiple access in the Hamming channel.     

浙江省城市韧性及其时空变化分析

我国城市化进程高速发展,城市面临的风险趋向多元化、复杂化.从城市韧性的角度出发,构建了“规模-密度-形态-基础设施”四位一体城市韧性描述体系,分析了浙江省2000年至2020年间城市韧性的时空变化,并对城市发展方向提出了建议.结果表明:在研究期间,浙江省城市韧性整体呈下降趋势,其中城市规模韧性逐年下降,存在着城市规模安全的隐患;城市密度韧性呈下降趋势,全省常年处于生态赤字风险之中;城市形态韧性整体上有所下降,但降幅较缓;城市基础设施韧性呈螺旋上升趋势,且各城市间差距逐渐缩小.浙江省的城市韧性呈现出“西高东低”梯度化的空间格局,相同韧性类型的城市也有集中分布的空间特征.根据城市韧性描述体系的研究结果,将浙江省各城市划分为高韧性城市、中韧性城市和低韧性城市三类,并分别给出城市发展方向的建议.     

轨道交通产业全产业链的韧性-脆弱性研究

首先,论述了韧性-脆弱性理论,界定了韧性-脆弱性的内涵．其次,分析了全产业链的产业韧性-脆弱性的形成机理,包括全产业链韧性-脆弱性和轨道交通产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性两个概念的界定．第三,构建了轨道交通产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性评价指标,内部评价指标来自于企业管理水平等5个影响因子,外部评价指标来自于资源禀赋等3个影响因子．第四,实证分析了轨道交通产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性评价,得出8个指标分别影响该产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性的情况是：企业规模、技术密集度、交通成本和对外开发程度这4个指标的影响显著,劳动力成本对产业影响程度不大,消费购买力和专利申请数及政策支持影响不显著．最后,从提高产业技术创新能力等5个方面,提出缓解轨道交通产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性的对策建议．     

基于韧性度的低轨卫星通信网络抗毁性度量及优化

低轨卫星通信网络的抗毁性是描述网络安全可靠的有效工具,在网络体系结构设计和路由策略等领域得到了广泛的应用。根据低轨卫星通信网络中卫星在轨道平面内移动,需要不断进行切换的特点,从建立抗毁性测度模型以及网络抗毁性优化两个角度来评估和提高网络抗毁性,提出一种基于韧性度的低轨卫星通信网络抗毁性度量方法。通过对移动模型以及切换模型的结构分析,对每种结构以一定概率出现的低轨卫星通信网络,应用韧性度函数,求得网络在某个时刻及某一段时间段内的抗毁性,并针对切换模型的不足之处进行优化,用赋权韧性度来体现优化的效果,得到了优化后的网络抗毁性。以铱星系统为应用实例进行仿真,结果表明:任意时刻网络的抗毁性跟拓扑结构的韧性度值有关,并且是一种线性关系,即随着韧性度的增加,其抗毁性也增加。通过对铱星通信系统切换模型的优化,网络的抗毁性与平均抗毁性都得到了提升,说明本文所构建模型的有效性和实用性。     

PROPERTIES OF POLYURETHANE ELASTOMERS BASED ON POLY (OXYETHYLENE-co-OXYTETRAMETHYLENE) DIOL*

Polyurethane elastomers derived from 4,4'-methylene bis(phenyl isocyanate), butylene glycol and the lowoxyethylene moiety content copolyether of tetrahydrofuran and ethylene oxide, obtained by copolymerization usingheteropolyacid-ethylene oxide initiator system, were prepared. The polyurethanes exhibited an increased water absorptionand much better low temperature resilience, which remained high even at a temperature of -3℃, while that of polyurethanebased upon poly(tetramethylene ether) glycol of the same molecular weight, i.e. being 2000, and molecular weightdistribution, i.e. in the range of 1.4-1.5, starts to decrease dramatically at 5℃.