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Land transformation from grassland to cropland in the Northern Great Plains (NGP) has become a growing concern among many stakeholders. A growing body of work has sought to determine the amount and rate of land use change with less emphasis on the systemic structures or feedback processes of land use decisions. This paper presents the development of a system dynamics simulation model to integrate ecological, economic, and social components influencing land use decisions, including cattle ranching, cropland production, rural communities, land quality, and public policies. Evaluation indicated that the model satisfactorily predicted historical land, agricultural commodity, and rural community data from the model structure. Reference modes for key variables, including the farmland area, were characterized by a bias correction of 0.999, root mean squared error of prediction of 0.053, R2 of 0.921, and concordance correlation coefficient of 0.0959. The model was robust under extreme and varying sensitivity tests, as well as adequately predicting land use under changing system context. The model's major contributions were the inclusion of decision‐making feedbacks from economic and social signals with connectivity to land quality and elasticity values that drive land transformation. Limitations include lack of spatial input and output capabilities useful for visual interfacing.  相似文献   
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We applied a management strategy evaluation (MSE) model to examine the potential cost‐effectiveness of using pheromone‐baited trapping along with conventional lampricide treatment to manage invasive sea lamprey. Four pheromone‐baited trapping strategies were modeled: (1) stream activation wherein pheromone was applied to existing traps to achieve 10?12 mol/L in‐stream concentration, (2) stream activation plus two additional traps downstream with pheromone applied at 2.5 mg/hr (reverse‐intercept approach), (3) trap activation wherein pheromone was applied at 10 mg/hr to existing traps, and (4) trap activation and reverse‐intercept approach. Each new strategy was applied, with remaining funds applied to conventional lampricide control. Simulating deployment of these hybrid strategies on fourteen Lake Michigan streams resulted in increases of 17 and 11% (strategies 1 and 2) and decreases of 4 and 7% (strategies 3 and 4) of the lakewide mean abundance of adult sea lamprey relative to status quo. MSE revealed performance targets for trap efficacy to guide additional research because results indicate that combining lampricides and high efficacy trapping technologies can reduce sea lamprey abundance on average without increasing control costs.  相似文献   
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This experiment investigated the effect on ultraviolet (UV) radiation-induced tumorigenesis of feeding the histamine type 2 receptor antagonist, cimetidine, to Skh:HR mice. Cimetidine was fed to one group during a 70 day period of chronic UVR (5 days/week for 10 weeks), to a second group from the end of this period to the end of the experiment at 286 days and a third group was fed a control diet only throughout the experiment. Feeding mice cimetidine during the 70 day period of irradiation protected them against the later development of skin tumours.  相似文献   
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