FORECASTING MINERAL SUPPLY FROM MINERAL RENT DATA

An optimal control model of exhaustible resources is used to clarify the long run relationship between mineral rent and depletion cost at the industry level. A standard first order condition of the time rate of change of rents is reformulated to reveal that rent data may be used to help forecast the rise in extraction costs resulting from resource depletion. This application of the theory of exhaustible resources is illustrated using historical mineral industry rent and extraction cost data. A forecast of U.S. coal extraction costs, following the method proposed in this paper, suggests that future rates of extraction cost increases will be similar to rates experienced in the past.     

Quantitative Impact of a Cognitive Modeling Intelligent Tutoring System on Student Performance in Balancing Chemical Equations

The need for improved interactive tutoring capabilities in educational software for chemistry problem solving is an important one clearly articulated by teachers and students. To deliver the next generation of individualized interactive capabilities users demand, it is necessary to go beyond the conventional computer-assisted instruction methodology. The focus of this paper is the assessment with first-semester general chemistry students of a recently developed artificial intelligence (AI) tutor for balancing chemical equations. This is the first such assessment of an AI-based learning tool in chemistry. Students in CHEM 121 in the Fall 2001 semester at Duquesne University (N = 273) participated in the study. Students were divided into a test group that used the AI tutor as part of their study activities and a control group that did not use the tutor. It was found that the tutor improved the performance of the test group students to a statistically significant degree, helping the weakest students the most. This study establishes the feasibility of an AI-based approach to creating advanced new tutoring software for chemistry problem solving. Access to a Web-based demonstration of the equation-balancing tutor may be obtained by emailing the corresponding author.     

Optimal Server Acquisition in Open Queueing Networks

Several production and flexible manufacturing systems can naturally be modelled using queueing networks. In this paper, we consider the problem of acquiring servers for the nodes of an open queueing network, so as to optimize the steady-state mean virtual system parameters subject to a budget constraint. A partial enumeration scheme and a heuristic method have been proposed to solve this problem. Empirical results based on randomly generated test problems are used to identify a class of problems for which the heuristic performs well.     

Global and local optimization using radial basis function response surface models

The focus of this paper is the optimization of complex multi-parameter systems. We consider systems in which the objective function is not known explicitly, and can only be evaluated through computationally intensive numerical simulation or through costly physical experiments. The objective function may also contain many local extrema which may be of interest. Given objective function values at a scattered set of parameter values, we develop a response surface model that can dramatically reduce the required computation time for parameter optimization runs. The response surface model is developed using radial basis functions, producing a model whose objective function values match those of the original system at all sampled data points. Interpolation to any other point is easily accomplished and generates a model which represents the system over the entire parameter space. This paper presents the details of the use of radial basis functions to transform scattered data points, obtained from a complex continuum mechanics simulation of explosive materials, into a response surface model of a function over the given parameter space. Response surface methodology and radial basis functions are discussed in general and are applied to a global optimization problem for an explosive oil well penetrator.     

Synthesis and characterization of a semiflexible liquid crystalline polyester with a broad nematic region

In this paper, we report on the synthesis and detailed characterization of a new semiflexible nematic liquid crystalline polyester which could serve as a 'model' polyester for a variety of physical and physico-chemical investigations. The polymer is a nematic liquid over a wide temperature range-from the glass transition temperature at ∼95°C to the isotropic transition at ∼240°C. We expect this polyester to be particularly useful for studying the effect of flow on the orientation of liquid crystalline polymers, as well as the production and removal of disclinations.     

Exact coexistence surfaces containing double critical points for a three-component solution on the Bethe,honeycomb, and square lattices

A model is considered in which the bonds of a lattice are covered by rodlike molecules. Neighboring molecular ends interact with orientation-dependent interactions. The model exhibits closed -loop phase diagrams and double critical points. Exact coexistence surfaces are calculated for the model on the Bethe, honeycomb, and square lattices. The nature of the doubling of the critical exponent near a double critical point is calculated. The behavior of the critical line in the neighborhood of a double critical point is calculated exactly.     

The pyrolysis and nonflaming oxidative degradation of poly(vinylfluoride)

The thermal degradation of poly(vinylfluoride) (PVF) was studied under slow heating conditions to 1000°C with and without the presence of air. The degradation products, classified as low-boiling volatiles, high-boiling volatiles, and nonvolatile residues, were analyzed quantitatively by gas chromatography—mass spectrometry and several spectroscopic methods. Initial stages of degradation begin at 420°C with the evolution of HF and benzene and rapidly reach a maximum in sample weight loss by 450°C. One-third of this weight loss was in the form of hydrofluoric acid (HF) and at least 70 low-boiling volatile compounds that consisted of substituted aromatics, unsaturated hydrocarbons, and multiple-ring compounds, many of which contained a fluorine atom. The high-boiling volatile fraction contained compounds with more aliphatic but less aromatic character than the low-boiling. The nonvolatile residue retained 4% of the original fluorine content and exhibited strong unsaturated character. In the presence of oxygen HF, CO, and H₂O were the major constituents of the low-boiling volatiles; the organic fraction was essentially unchanged in composition but reduced in overall concentration. The overall weight-loss process was bimodal in air and produced a thermally resistant residue that degraded by 650°C. A comparison of degradation products from poly(vinylchloride) with this work demonstrates that PVF forms more lower-molecular-weight, halogen-containing compounds, whereas the former produced more HCl and nonvolatile residue containing a lower halogen content.