A goal programming approach to energy forecasting

Goal programming besides, being a broadly used decision tool, is shown in this paper to be a powerful forecasting device too. It is used as the main component of an energy demand forecasting system, performing a function of an integrator of information on the future growth of energy demand. This information comes from a variety of sources. The most important is a set of econometric models, based on different approaches, which explain past behaviour of the energy demand system. Other sources of information used are statements on government energy policy, feasibility or technical reports and, finally, the forecaster's guess. Thus GP is intended to relax many of the assumptions of conventional econometric forecasting, which render it inadequate under the prevailing conditions of quickly changing energy structures.An implementation of the system on the Greek economy is also described in this paper. Four scenarios of energy demand growth up to 1990 are studied. The levels of energy requirements in these scenarios vary as a consequence of the patterns of economic development and rates of increase in the price of oil.     

Energy-economy models: A survey

In the turbulent environment that is now surrounding us, it has become obvious that the energy system cannot be treated in isolation, but within the context of a broader system which is the economy. Energy-economy models have thus attracted the attention of energy policy analysts, particularly in the last five years. This paper presents a critical review of some of the more recent models, and draws some conclusions on the actual and potential contribution of energy modelling in energy policy formulation. The first part of the paper presents a conceptual framework for energy-economy interactions. The process is described and key parameters are identified. The second part, after describing the general structure of energy-economy models and highlighting the basic structural components, reviews some representative models. The third part analyses the deficiencies of the models as forecasting devices and stresses their merits as tools for analysis in the energy policy formulation process.     

Energy policy modelling in developing and industrializing countries

A large number of models have been developed and used for energy policy planning, in a regional, national or international level, in order to cope with the broad variety of issues related to the energy problem. Energy models belong to the class of policy models, which address fuzzy and complex issues involving many non-quantitative factors, such as political issues, behavioural aspects, etc., as well as many uncertainties and lack of rigorous knowledge concerning the structure of the reference system, and the interrelationships of its elements. The role of energy policy models is very important, since they enhance understanding and communication, and they assist the policymakers to review plausible future configurations of relevant decision variables and parameters. In this paper one of the most important areas of energy modelling is investigated, that concerning the interactions between energy and economy in the group of Developing and Industrializing Countries (DIC's). It is pointed out that energy models used in the DIC's must capture the particular features of energy policy in these countries, such as rapid economic development fueled by expensive, depleting and often imported energy resources; dependence on foreign resources such as energy, capital, technology, etc.; management of indigenous resources, social structural changes, rapid population growth, urbanization and industrialization. In order to improve energy models and enhance their contributions in policy analysis, it is proposed that modelling efforts should be directed towards a better understanding of the energy-economy relationships in the DIC's, as well as towards the development of validated data bases.     

On the optimal level of a small country's strategic petroleum reserve

Decisions relating to a country's strategic petroleum reserve must take into account the level of risk inherent in its petroleum imports, the cost resulting from any shortfall in the import level, the cost of storage, and finally the effects of stockpiling transactions on the sensitive spot oil markets. Of course, small countries need not take into account their effect on the global market, a fact that drastically simplifies their decision problem. We present such a simple decision model for a small country's petroleum reserve which in addition to the above factors take into account the uncertainty of the country's refining capacity. A complete analytical treatment is feasible for this model, and a specific numerical example is presented for the case of Greece.     

Project Ranking in the Armenian Energy Sector Using a Multicriteria Method for Groups

Project ranking is a complex problem that is often faced by the decision makers involved in the planning process. The necessity to take into account several decision parameters apart from purely economic ones, such as socio-political, technical, institutional and environmental, lead to the use of multicriteria methods instead of single uni-criterion ones. Moreover, most of the times such decisions are taken in a group environment. A hybrid of ELECTRE III and PROMETHEE methods, MURAME, has been specially developed and constitutes the main part of an integrated project ranking methodology for groups. The experience of the application of the methodology in the Armenian energy sector is presented.